Punxsutawney Phil vs. the U.S. National Weather Service

Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions for the coming of Spring on Groundhog Day haven’t been that accurate, and the U.S. National Weather Service is here to prove it with an infographic!

Every February 2, a crowd of thousands gathers at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to await a special forecast from a groundhog named Phil. If the 20-pound groundhog emerges and sees his shadow, the United States can expect six more weeks of winter weather according to legend. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, we can expect warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring.

Even though he’s been forecasting since 1887, Phil’s track record for the entire country isn’t perfect. To determine just how accurate he is, we’ve compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil’s forecasts. On average, Phil has gotten it right 40% of the time over the past 10 years.

Using real data wins!

For what it’s worth, Phil didn’t see his shadow in 2020, and predicted that Spring would be coming soon!